New study concerns the severity of the forthcoming Bitcoin Trust unlock events and indicates more possible price risks later in 2021, according to the cryptocommercial company QCP Capital, which will not move much after Grayscale's huge 16,000-BTC unlocking date.
On Wednesday, experts repeated in their recent market update that the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in Grayscale will create BTC volatility in price in the next weeks.
No predicted "major impact"
The GBTC intends to release huge quantities of BTC following a six-month lock-up period, according to Cryptops
Nevertheless, a regular event, the scale of this month's release, has led to fears about increasing market volatility, which would hamper a possible rebound.
On July 18, for instance, 16,240 BTC, presently equal to $530 million, will be released on the biggest unlocking day.
There is no cause for fear for QCP, though.
The latest batch consists of new Q1/20201, mostly ARK's last tranche, said. "The new unlocks are for institutional holders who subscribed straight to GBTC 6 months ago.
"To say this simply — we do not think that these [their] unlocks will have a big influence beyond the GBTC itself on the general market. Many of the huge institutional investments that had previously registered were already unlocked and have stopped selling at the present reduced price."
At present, even GBTC releases have vanished by mid-August, which further reduces the chances to sell pressure.
"Larger" BTC sell-offs can prevent Macro considerations
However, a major Bitcoin sales event towards the end of the year might be a headache for QCP.
In keeping with the old pattern, a classical blow-up scenario after a recuperation and update of current levels might be observed towards the conclusion of Q4.
These experts equated 2018 to a bear market of $3,100, 84% below the ever peak of $20,000 12 months earlier. This figure was similar to 2018.
"Now, our trading plans are in line with the 2018 BTC Analog – from here to August (short volume), where we expect an impaired business environment followed by an event possibly on the back of the mainnet EIP-1559 implementation (long location, long calling) and then the larger Fed taper Q4 Wave 5 seal (sell point, purchase reversal of downside risks)" they went on.
In the meanwhile, how high BTC/USD is, is an issue of intense dispute. One of the most bull-proved models, the one that was created by PlanB, is "best-to-flow," with a price of $135,000 in December.
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